Archive for category: Australian Weekly Market Report

Comment

Auction sales have started 2022 in a very positive way. We shouldn’t be so surprised. In the past 13 years, since January 2010, the market has opened strongly in January with the exception being January 2014 and January 2015 when, in both cases, the market was very firm. We are not sure of the reasons for this but it might have some relevance to the pending Chinese New Year period and it’s a generally good time of the year for demand overall. There is no doubt some optimism coming from Europe but also a level of caution to start the year from some sectors in China. Some have commented that the market was perhaps a little stronger in 2021 than it should have been, all things considered. No doubt though, since 2010 we have continued to enter into significantly different supply and demand circumstances. Supply is dictating terms more than the demand. We noticed that this week in the auction. For quality wools, if you wanted to buy a particular lot, competition was keen from the outset. There is less quality fine wool on offer than we would normally expect at this time of the year as well.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 10/12/2021

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1389

Change in % +2.28

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 3797

Change in %: unchanged (minimal offering)

16 Micron

Close: 3065

Change in %: +0.49

17 Micron

Close: 2642

Change in %: -0.15

18 Micron

Close: 2254

Change in %: +1.21

19 Micron

Close: 1879

Change in %: +2.40

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2649

Change in %: +0.53

Forecast

According to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report, wool exports from July to the end of November 2021 are 45% higher overall compared to 2020. These are extraordinary figures with big percentage increases shown in exports to Italy (+355%), India (+125%), Czech Republic (+57%) and Egypt (+244%). Even exports to China are 35% up on much greater volume. Quite a performance for the wool industry. Exactly how this will play out in terms of future supply, we are not sure. Wool was held on farm rather than sent to store at the start of 2020. We suspect that a good percentage of the merinos have since been sold and the bulk of the bales still in store are crossbred types.
The market increases this week might be just a little too fast, we’ll need to wait the weekend to see if there is any interest from the Chinese sector at this new basis.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale         Offered        Sold       Passed In

North              S 28           12543        11749         6.3%

South               M 28           22180        20600        7.1%

West                F 28            9016        8209         9.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days     Volume

North               S 29            T / W 10215

South               M 29          T / W / T 27311

West                F 29            T / W 9007

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Comment

The auction has performed strongly in the penultimate sale for 2021. Under the circumstance of shipping deadlines for a pre-Christmas shipment having now passed and a strengthening Australian dollar, the market could have struggled to maintain this week. But, as has been the case for some time now, the market continued to sell in a very positive tone. All types and descriptions were a little dearer.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 26/11/2021

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1360

Change in % +1.04

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 3852

Change in %:  +0.68

16 Micron

Close: 3137

Change in %: +0.87

17 Micron

Close: 2625

Change in %: -0.57

18 Micron

Close: 2252

Change in %: -0.44

19 Micron

Close: 1867

Change in %: +2.87

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2662

Change in %: +0.23

Forecast

42,000 bales are now catalogued for sale next week and expectations are that the market will continue around similar levels through to the close. With the EMI close to the 970 USD level, we expect demand from China to remain relatively stable next week before the three-week Christmas recess. Demand from Europe has also been consistent in recent weeks.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale         Offered        Sold       Passed In

North              S 23           10275        9666         5.9%

South               M 23           20937        19588        6.4%

West                F 23            4861       4395         9.6%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days     Volume

North               S 24           T / W        10949

South               M 24           T / W        23798

West                F 24           T / W        7289

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Comment

The market tone this week was positive with all micron categories finishing in positive territory at the close of sales this week. It seems that the realization of the shipping squeeze prior to the xmas recess had exporters in a positive frame of mind to have some continuous supply of wool on the water prior to the long break. Add to this the attractive A$ making currency conversion still very tradable in US$ terms. Finer microns bounced back this week which is encouraging for superfine wool growers, whilst mid to medium micron growers continue to have some stability through this range. RWS, NM & CM all continue to attract keen competition when available.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 19/11/2021

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1341

Change in % +1.30

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 3808

Change in %:  +3.30

16 Micron

Close: 3050

Change in %: +5.0

17 Micron

Close: 2594

Change in %: +0.50

18 Micron

Close: 2183

Change in %: +0.50

19 Micron

Close: 1835

Change in %: -1.0

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2607

Change in %: +1.80

Forecast

We stand by our assessment of the trigger points with an EMI @ 1341 and the US price below 970 that the market will continue to trade in a positive manner. Business has been spasmodic since the close of sales, however there is a very solid base in the market and exporters are prepared to hold firm and encourage buyers and processors to meet the market in what will be an exciting finish to another difficult year overshadowed by COVID-19.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale         Offered        Sold       Passed In

North                      S 21                     9507                  8943                 5.9%

South                     M 21                    20478                18859                7.9%

West                       F 21                     6829                   6401                6.3%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days     Volume

North                      S 22                      T / W                     9685

South                      M 22                     T / W                    23899

West                        F 22                      T / W                      7915

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Comment

In a lackluster week of trading we saw the wool market struggle again with all sectors a little more selective and the Chinese overall more subdued. Even best style/length NM/CM & RWS came back to field a little this week with less competition, which raises the question about sustainability of price ? Shipping and containerization issues still hamper the flow of wool to China, Europe and the Asia Pacific regions with no end in sight.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 05/11/2021

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1319

Change in % -1.60

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 3650

Change in %:  -6.0

16 Micron

Close: 2975

Change in %: -1.50

17 Micron

Close: 2606

Change in %: -0.0

18 Micron

Close: 2205

Change in %: -1.50

19 Micron

Close: 1740

Change in %: -5.0

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2577

Change in %: -2.0

Forecast

Trigger points to watch for this week are the EMI down 1319 and the USD price down to 972 which in recent months have been the trigger to an improved market the following weeks. This may be supported by heavy buying activity by Chinese traders/processors like Techwool and Tianyu who topped the buyers list this week ? Shipping schedules are filled with delays between now and Christmas which is making it difficult for exporters.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale         Offered        Sold       Passed In

North                      S 19                    10373                 9115                 12.1%

South                     M 19                    20922                18065               13.7%

West                       F 19                     6335                   5088                19.7%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days     Volume

North                      S 20                      T / W                    11448

South                      M 20                    T / W / T               25153

West                        F 20                      T / W                     8113

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Comment

Less than enthusiastic trading this week saw the market in a downward cycle. We have seen evidence this week that when the EMI reaches approx.1370 and the USD price reaches 1000 cents per kg nervousness takes hold and the market retracts. Positives to take from the falling market are that RWS/NM/CM accredited wool did fall by as much and are being well supported. Increased volumes Nationally of RWS wool this week with approx. 2,000 bales on offer. We continue to work closely with wool brokers and wool producers to increase the volume of RWS accredited wool for our brand partners.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 15/10/2021

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1333

Change in % -2.60

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 3901

Change in %:  +4.70

16 Micron

Close: 3105

Change in %: -0.20

17 Micron

Close: 2702

Change in %: -0.40

18 Micron

Close: 2346

Change in %: -0.70

19 Micron

Close: 1832

Change in %: -1.20

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2709

Change in %: +0.30

Forecast

A slow down in trading conditions and increased volumes on offer could see the market struggling to maintain these current levels. Expectation is for a slightly cheaper market, however with some grower resistance this may change.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale         Offered        Sold       Passed In

North                      S 17                    12476                 10459                 16.20%

South                     M 17                    20215                16080                 20.50%

West                       F 17                     8169                  5763                    29.50%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days     Volume

North                      S 18                      W / T                   8771

South                      M 18                     W / T                   24829

West                        F 18                      W / T                   6676

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.