Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Demand slowed again this week as the small offering as well as the still drought affected wools are having an impact. With a large percentage of the offering having poor spec and very low yield, exporters are finding these types harder to place orders. These poorest style wools saw the largest loss over the week. Growers were very resistant to the fall in prices with 21.3% of the entire offering passed in. The better spec and yielding wools were less affected, whilst those with best style were barely affected as a real gap has begun to emerge between quality.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 07/06/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1823

Change in % -2.20%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 07/06/2019

↓15 Micron

Close: 2,494

Change in %: -1.84%

↓16 Micron

Close: 2,253

Change in %: -2.35%

↓17 Micron

Close:  2,176

Change in %: -2.48%

↓18 Micron

Close: 2,117

Change in %: -2.36%

↓19 Micron

Close: 2,068

Change in %: -1.06%

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

Sales will take a break once again this week in Fremantle seeing the national offering drop back again to just 19,745.

As the drought continues across much of NSW and QLD the generally poor offering will continue for the foreseeable future. There is a generally small national offering forecast for the next couple of weeks leading into the three week recess. Hopefully this can stimulate the market a little as buyers need to complete orders and look to have enough wool to keep the machines running through the recess.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 50                      7923                          6841                  13.7%

South                   M 50                     14256                        11757                 17.5%

West                     F 50                      5961                          3562                  25.0%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 50                        W-T                          8327

South                      M 50                       W-T                          11418

West                        No Sale

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Currency markets are fluctuating a little and this is impacting on market confidence. The AWEX EMI was down just 7 USC (0.5%) for the week but 1.2% lower in local currency. The smaller volume offering, just 21,000 bales nationally, wouldn’t have helped. And furthermore, 15% of those were passed in, resulting in just 18,000 bales being sold to the trade for the week. Topmakers seem to be taking the most advantage of the more subdued tone in the auction room. The small offering of better yielding and performing types were largely unchanged but all other descriptions were irregular.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 31/05/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1864

Change in % -1.22%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 31/05/2019

↑15 Micron

Close: 2,540

Change in %: +0.24%

↓16 Micron

Close: 2,306

Change in %: -1.86%

↓17 Micron

Close:  2,230

Change in %: -1.75%

↓18 Micron

Close: 2,167

Change in %: -0.32%

↓19 Micron

Close: 2,090

Change in %: -2.01%

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

Sales in Fremantle will be on again next week after a one-week break. It’s a very quiet time of the year in Western Australia and each year there are a few weeks during this period without sales.

The drought continues in parts of NSW. Lambing numbers were significantly affected last year and young weaner weathers are being sold as we move into winter without sufficient grass cover. This will impact further on wool production this year, particularly in the New England region where the Italian market often relies on heavily for volume of quality types.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 49

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 49                      9495                          8162                  14.0%

South                   M 49                     12249                        10218                 16.6%

West                     F 49                      no sale

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 50                        W-T                          8242

South                     M 50                       W-T                          15136

West                       F 50                        W-T                            6611

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

What a clear difference the one week can make. Buyer confidence returned and it didn’t take much to push the AWEX EMI nearly 3% dearer. Less than 30,000 bales were offered. Passed in rates were much lower as growers are more comfortable selling into a strong market. There was positive news regarding the sale of tops and greasy wool coming out of China late last week and the expectations of a dearer market came to fruition. It’s clear what difference just a little improvement in confidence can have when considering the volume and type of wool on offer. The Chinese focus was on 19.5 and broader plus the most inferior types. The overall price gap between best, worst, finest and broadest, is now at the smallest range for the season to date. As is often the case when the market is changing, the cardings move first, locks were as much as 8% dearer.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 24/05/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1887

Change in % +2.95%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 24/05/2019

↓15 Micron

Close: 2,534

Change in %: -0.2%

↑16 Micron

Close: 2,349

Change in %: +0.51%

↑17 Micron

Close:  2,269

Change in %: +1.63%

↑18 Micron

Close: 2,174

Change in %: +0.51%

↑19 Micron

Close: 2,132

Change in %: +0.94%

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

Growers are more likely to sell now. Historically an improvement in market confidence like this week would flush out volume for sale, but still just 23,000 bales are currently rostered for each of the next two weeks and less than 20,000 bales in week 51. No doubt, the first sale in July will be a larger one, the first of the new financial year, but we also have the three-week recess to consider in July. Anyone who needs wool either for prompt demand or to feed machinery will have little option but to buy. To wait would seem a risky proposition with the market volatility seen in recent times.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 48

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 48                      7864                          7459                  5.2%

South                   M 48                     16418                        14972                  8.8%

West                     F 48                      3991                           3470                  13.1%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 49                        W-T                          10391

South                     M 49                       W-T                           13228

West                       F 49                      no sale

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Buyers are not confident to accumulate as downstream demand remains slow. Just 17,000 bales were sold to the trade but to place it into perspective, the weekly turnover was still M$32.7. Not bad considering the general gloomy outlook. We did notice much greater confidence return to the market yesterday. Bidding activity was stronger from a wider range of buyers. For the first time in several weeks, the more inferior types outperformed the better types in terms of market movement yesterday. The tender and lower yielding types were all 1% dearer with some perceived value at these levels entering the mindset of traders and topmakers. The AWEX merino carding indicator (MC) is now at the 19% percentile for 5 years. Meaning that prices have only been lower 18% of the time in 5 years. The market in this sector has certainly been affected but we remain confident that it will improve quickly. Supply of merino cardings will be more affected than most types when considering we will be at the lowest level of supply in 100 years within the next 12 months.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 17/05/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1833

Change in % -3.17%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 17/05/2019

15 Micron

Close: 2,539

Change in %: 0%

↓16 Micron

Close: 2,337

Change in %: -2.44%

↓17 Micron

Close:  2,232

Change in %: -4.08%

↓ 18 Micron

Close: 2,163

Change in %: -3.28%

↓19 Micron

Close: 2,112

Change in %: -2.32%

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

We keep focusing on supply, and for good reason. With 31,000 bales next week followed by as little as 20,000 nationally the week after we would expect the market to be performing better. It’s a difficult period, prices are easing and it’s obviously a moment to be cautious but some customers who are planning for the next season will start to make some enquiries at these reduced levels. It would provide some security to have something covered while others are reluctant to even consider it. Growers are still greatly suffering from the drought and have shown a very clear tendency to hold wool rather than to sell it in a falling market.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 47

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 47                      6900                          5066                  26.6%

South                   M 47                     12833                         9992                  22.1%

West                     F 47                      4388                           2250                  48.7%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 48                        W-T                           8984

South                     M 48                       W-T                           17696

West                       F 48                        W                                4784

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

The lifting of the ban on exports from South Africa to China this week was a very good result for all concerned. It was a difficult period for the industry, particularly for those directly involved, but also the broader wool community. Whenever the normal flow of wool is compromised by external forces, uncertainty is created. Available finance has been pushed to the limit and variable market prices between the countries made trading conditions extremely difficult. The fact that the South African wool was selling at a discount to Australian prices until now, meant that the lifting of the ban must have been a strong influencing factor determining the direction of the market in Australia this week. Demand through the pipeline was already very poor. Now that the flow of wool is more transparent, we hope to see standard supply and demand factors to play out and for more confidence to return. Just 26,000 bales were eventually sold this week with 21% passed in rate. Growers backing their judgement that prices will remain stable in the medium term as supply will be very restricted. Less than 4,000 bales were sold in Fremantle with 45% of the merino fleece failing to meet grower expectations and will remain in store for another day.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 10/05/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1893

Change in % -3.02%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 10/05/2019

↓15 Micron

Close: 2,539

Change in %: -5.24%

↓16 Micron

Close: 2,394

Change in %: -2.59%

↓17 Micron

Close:  2,323

Change in %: -2.67%

↓ 18 Micron

Close: 2,234

Change in %: -2.51%

↓19 Micron

Close: 2,161

Change in %: -2.22%

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

The staple strength of the offering is actually quite good. According to AWEX figures, despite the drought, one third of the merino fleece offered this week was >40nkt and more than half of the merino fleece with a mid-break < than 50%. It’s the yield that is most restrictive to buyers for China in particular. The cheaper Australian dollar failed to add any support to wool prices.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 46

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 46                      8431                          7052                   16.4%

South                   M 46                     18302                       15097                  17.5%

West                     F 46                      6420                         3816                   40.6%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                   S 47                        W-T                             7100

South                   M 47                       W-T                           14032

West                     F 47                        W                                4505

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

A softening market trend this week in a another very disappointing offering. The impact of the drought on quality and quantity so far this season has been immense. Only 33,000 bales were offered and, on both days, the average market eased a little. The few better lines are attracting competition from a wider range of buyers and are clearly less affected. The EMI lost only 8c this week as crossbred wools continue upward with Chinese demand for these types outweighing supply.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 02/05/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1952

Change in % +0.41%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 02/05/2019

 15 Micron

Close: 2,672

Change in %: 0.00

↑ 16 Micron

Close: 2,456

Change in %: 0.16%

↑ 17 Micron

Close:  2,385

Change in %: +0.75

↓ 18 Micron

Close: 2,290

Change in %: -1.40

↑ 19 Micron

Close: 2,209

Change in %: +0.36

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

The general cautious tone across the wool industry isn’t necessarily playing out in the same way on greasy wool prices. It’s been a very difficult trading period. Wool prices are lower, yet relatively stable when considering the reduction in enquiry from our customers. Perhaps this is now starting to change the thought process of those who either need some wool for prompt production or prepare for the new season.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 45

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 45                      8005                       7303                   8.8%

South                   M 45                     18367                      16006                 12.9%

West                     F 45                      6429                        5267                   18.1%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                   S 46                        W-T                             8556

South                   M 46                       W-T                            18726

West                     F 46                        W-T                             6079

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Auction sales resumed after the Easter Recess. A slightly larger sale this week with 43,000 bales on offer and the Australian dollar 2.4% and 1.5% easier against the USD and EURO respectively since the last auction on 17th April. Prices opened stronger but not to the full extent of the currency adjustment. There was little change on Thursday and buying activity was as stable as we’ve seen in recent weeks. Perhaps confidence has been helped by consideration of quantities to come between now and August.

 

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 17/04/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1960

Change in % +0.87%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 17/04/2019

↓ 15 Micron

Close: 2,672

Change in %: -0.26

↓ 16 Micron

Close: 2,452

Change in %: -0.73%

↑17 Micron

Close:  2,367

Change in %: +0.21

↑ 18 Micron

Close: 2,322

Change in %: +1.85

↑19 Micron

Close: 2,201

Change in %: +0.50

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

Despite the well documented reduced production, AWTA test data indicates an increase by 78.8% of wool tested 16.5 micron and finer to the end of April compared to the same period last season. 17.0 micron, an increase of 23.0%. Despite this quite dramatic volume increase and reports of a drop in consumption of fine wool, the AWEX Micron Price Guide for 17.0 (MPG) published this week still has it in the 73rd percentile for the last 5 years. Meaning prices have been lower than this level 72% of the time over the past 5 years. This is quite a strong point for the potential of 17.0 micron and finer to improve when the better quality selection becomes available from August. Supply is expected to decrease (drought and poor lambing last year) and a possible shift to a better growing season this year (time will tell) could easily result in a reduction in volume of tested fine wool. There is currently only about a 7% difference in average price between 17.0 micron and 21.0 micron to add further thought to this prospect. Crossbred wool (25.0/30.0 micron) remain at historically high levels. Crossbred producers should take care of their valuable product and employ a classer to prepare their clip to the Code of Practice to obtain full advantage of this current trend.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 44

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 44                     10443                       10120                 3.1%

South                   M 44                     21790                      20592                 5.5%

West                     F 44                      10820                        9578                 11.5%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                   S 45                        W-T                             8159

South                   M 45                       W-T                            19248

West                     F 45                        W-T                             6057

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

The Australian Market seemed to find a level this week with a range of types and microns varying slightly each way. As with recent weeks we saw no significant change, with the AWEX EMI closing 7c higher than last week. The highlight of the week was the annual sale held at the Sydney Royal Easter show across Tuesday and Wednesday. This event see’s close to 1 million people making the trip to Homebush over the two weeks, bringing new interest into the wool sales and attracting a lot of attention to the industry. A larger offering including a few slightly better style types meant better specification fine wools remained keenly sought after with an evident premium for NM clips still there. The bulk of the offering was similar to recent weeks with low yields. Lower style wools somewhat ‘caught up’ as buyers looked to gain some quantity before the Easter break period. Crossbreds again continued to rise this week particularly in the Northern Region.

 

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 11/04/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1943

Change in % +0.36%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Schneider Indicators compared with 11/04/2019

↑ 15 Micron

Close: 2,751

Change in %: +1.6

↑ 16 Micron

Close: 2,444

Change in %: -1.35%

↓ 17 Micron

Close:  2,326

Change in %: -1.07

↑ 18 Micron

Close: 2,291

Change in %: +0.44

↓ 19 Micron

Close: 2,194

Change in %: -0.09

 

Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it’s not influenced by currency fluctuations.

Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.

If you want to learn more about SCHNEIDER indicators Click here.

Forecast

With a one week break from sales now coming up there will be a similar sized sale to this week when we return in Sale 44. Due to seasonal conditions the quality of clips is also expected to be lower than usual as well as continued low yields. However as usual there should remain a number of nice wool’s coming through. With the current Foot and Mouth Disease situation in South Africa not forecast to be resolved in the immediate future it is expected competition for Chinese spec clips to remain steadily firm.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 42

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold          Passed In

North                    S 42                      9663                       9115                    5.7%

South                   M 42                     21165                     19249                   9.1%

West                     F 42                       9946                      8210                  17.5%

 

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                   S 43                      no sale

South                   M 43                     no sale

West                     F 43                      no sale

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.