AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

There was a clear distinction between the sale result of the better types when compared to the more inferior. No doubt as the market remains in an easing trend, that the appetite for inferior wool types is not good. Any wool with good specification was more keenly sort after while those with low strength, low yields or high mid breaks in particular, were irregular and cheaper. We did see a few ultra fine bales, not particularly good in terms of quality, that sold well. That was a good result for these growers in an otherwise fairly lacklustre market.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 29/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1492

Change in % -2.48

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2479

Change in %: +0.16

16 Micron

Close: 2246

Change in %: -2.94

17 Micron

Close: 2086

Change in %: -2.66

18 Micron

Close: 1970

Change in %: -2.72

19 Micron

Close: 1904

Change in %: +0.32

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2104

Change in %: -2.19

Forecast

The market seems almost in a holding pattern awaiting the recess. We have only the two sale weeks remaining and growers in recent weeks have been more inclined to pass wool in if it fails to meet pre-sale expectations.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 23

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 23                     10075                       8691                  13.7%

South                     M 23                     19735                      15776                 20.1%

West                       F 23                       7381                         5338                 27.7%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 24                       W-T                           10792

South                      M 24                    T-W-T                        27734

West                        F 24                       W-T                            9925

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

The market was a little easier over both selling days but 33,000 bales to the value of $54,000,000 sold to the trade in the week. Not a bad result in a generally negative market tone. We remain convinced that there is demand for wool, albeit a little cautious. Our fine wool Authentico index values also report a more positive market for NM/CM wool in what was a slightly better selection. There is no doubt that the better superfine clips that are either NM or CM are attracting a wider range of competition and these wool’s sold well and tended dearer. The Authentico index values for 15.0, 16.0 and 17.0 all improved a little. 18.0 was unchanged and 19.0 was easier.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 22/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1530

Change in % -1.61

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2475

Change in %: +1.64

16 Micron

Close: 2314

Change in %: +1.71

17 Micron

Close: 2143

Change in %: +0.42

18 Micron

Close: 2025

Change in %: +0.05

19 Micron

Close: 1898

Change in %: -1.71

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2151

Change in %: +0.56

Forecast

Just three weeks remain before the Christmas recess and it appears that the market will continue within this narrower trading range until the end of December.

It’s important to note that the strength in our index values came from the 15.0 and 16.0 range and neither of these micron ranges are included in the EMI.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 22

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 22                     10237                       8938                  12.7%

South                     M 22                     20315                      17631                  13.2%

West                       F 22                       7275                         5895                 19.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 23                       W-T                           10163

South                      M 23                      W-T                           23158

West                        F 23                       W-T                            7953

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

There seems enough interest to source greasy wool coming from the Chinese sector but the current market volatility is resulting in extreme caution on price being shown by the customers. This in turn is affecting profitability and limiting traders willingness to take risk. Whenever the market shows an inclination for strengthening, it brings more optimistic buying activity. The moment it softens, the sales stop. But because the market is reacting in weekly patterns like this, up and down with regularity, we are of the opinion that wool is needed in the short term. The risk of being caught on the wrong side for price as a result of the volatility is the problem.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 15/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1555

Change in % -1.21

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2435

Change in %: -4.21

16 Micron

Close: 2275

Change in %: -2.49

17 Micron

Close: 2134

Change in %: -2.15

18 Micron

Close: 2024

Change in %: -1.94

19 Micron

Close: 1931

Change in %: -1.73

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2139

Change in %: -2.37

Forecast

The market tone on Thursday was completely different to that early Wednesday. With the market finishing strongly on Wednesday, this flowed through to Thursday and we were of the opinion that the market was better than it was reported on Thursday. Quite clearly, sitting in the sale room, it was a different and much more positive environment.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 21

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 21                      9666                        8444                  12.6%

South                     M 21                     17535                      15290                  12.8%

West                       F 21                       8518                         6488                 23.8%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 22                       W-T                           10597

South                      M 22                      W-T                           21380

West                        F 22                       W-T                            7303

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Market volatility continued this week with a reversal of last week’s easing trend. Prices got off to a stronger start and stabilised on Thursday after overacting just a little late on Wednesday. All in all, it was a more promising market tone this week, particularly for the finer microns. It was the better lots 15.5 / 17.0 micron that attracted the most attention with the Chinese focus supported strongly from European interests. Our Authentico indicators performed in line with the general market for 15.0 / 17.0 micron but typically, our index values are more stable than the general market for 18.0 and 19.0 micron.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 8/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1574

Change in % +1.22

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2542

Change in %: +1.72

16 Micron

Close: 2333

Change in %: +2.32

17 Micron

Close: 2181

Change in %: +2.59

18 Micron

Close: 2064

Change in %: +0.98

19 Micron

Close: 1965

Change in %: +0.98

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2191

Change in %: +1.81

Forecast

There was more interest from the Chinese sector this week, as mentioned in our weekly comment, this was more focused on the finer merinos. We’ve said for a while now that they have appeared better value. Now that selection is slowing for the better fine wool, if interest from China is maintained, we remain positive for this market. Production is particularly affected in this range, specifically when considering quality types.

Our thoughts are with our wool grower friends now battling bush fires after lengthy period of drought and costly supplementary feed bills. Their resilience in these times is extraordinary and our support and best wishes for a satisfactory outcome.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 20

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 20                      9781                        9139                   6.6%

South                     M 20                     19985                      18741                  6.2%

West                       F 20                       6344                         5704                 10.1%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 21                       W-T                           10015

South                      M 21                      W-T                           21779

West                        F 21                       W-T                            8932

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

The market on average got off to a softer tone on Wednesday despite the generally good result for all better specification wools which closed generally firm. Wool of 16.0 micron and finer continue to be in demand. Not surprising, those clips certified non mulesed continue to sell with more consistent demand and are not exposed to the general volatility experienced by the overall market through this period. Our Authentico index fell just 0.5% for the week with the 19.0 range the most affected.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 1/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1555

Change in % -2.45

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2499

Change in %: -1.07

16 Micron

Close: 2280

Change in %: -0.04

17 Micron

Close: 2126

Change in %: -0.56

18 Micron

Close: 2044

Change in %: -0.24

19 Micron

Close: 1946

Change in %: -1.81

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2152

Change in %: -0.51

Forecast

Some general rain fell across eastern Australia. Some regions received more than others. For many it wasn’t drought breaking but our rural friends and colleagues all remain positive that a shift in the ongoing dry trend is changing. We are seeing some good consistent volumes on offer at the moment but just the six sale weeks remain up to Christmas. Volatility is likely to continue. We expect that some still need to buy wool soon and with the Fremantle auction finishing positively on Thursday, we hope that this will be good lead into next week.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 19

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 19                      9332                        8284                  11.2%

South                     M 19                     16788                       13918                 17.1%

West                       F 19                       7964                         5910                 25.8%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 20                       W-T                           10399

South                      M 20                      W-T                           20753

West                        F 20                       W-T                            7345

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Following from last week’s positive lead, prices strengthened across the board on Wednesday and followed with a more stabilising market on Thursday. There was no doubt that the confidence shown in the auction room on Wednesday was much greater than we’ve seen in recent months and this was a welcome sign. As the AUD strengthened against the USD overnight Wednesday, there was a little more caution shown on Thursday but prices settled to be around about the same level on average. The better type and specification types were a little dearer and the average strength Chinese qualities a little irregular and cheaper. Fremantle opened cheaper than the east on Thursday but it was noted that the market improved towards the close of sale in that centre. Crossbred and carding types were event more keenly sought after than the merino combing types.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 25/10/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1594

Change in % +3.17

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2526

Change in %: +4.21

16 Micron

Close: 2281

Change in %: +3.40

17 Micron

Close: 2138

Change in %: +2.59

18 Micron

Close: 2049

Change in %: +1.59

19 Micron

Close: 1982

Change in %: +1.48

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2163

Change in %: +2.46

Forecast

If the current market trend continues, in the next few weeks we’ll slowly but surely shift some of the grower held wool onto the market. The availability of wool over the next four weeks is currently forecast to be greater than the same period last year. It has been an orderly approach to marketing this year despite the extreme volatility in price. On the occasion of dramatic falls, we’ve seen up to 50% of the fleece wool offered for sale being passed in. Likewise, when we have expected a better market, we haven’t seen a huge volume of held bales flood the auction. We are constantly encouraged by the greater communication between buyers and sellers these days and a maturing supply chain as a result. Let’s hope that this sensible approach continues towards Christmas. A less volatile market over a sustained period will add some much-needed confidence.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 18

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 18                      8946                        8561                  4.3%

South                     M 18                     17958                       17139                 4.6%

West                       F 18                       8396                        7308                 13.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 19                       W-T                            9515

South                      M 19                      W-T                          18386

West                        F 19                       W-T                           8596

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

There was welcome interest from the local traders with small but more consistent interest coming from China. We’re pleased that the band that the market is reacting within is now much smaller compared to last month. The better types and the most inferior types were the least affected as the typical Chinese qualities were in favour this week. Again, of interest to our group was the focus on 16.5 micron and finer. This is a micron range that is typically sought after by Italian weavers. For some time now they have appeared good value and as the Chinese focus remains on 18.5 and broader, it was only a matter of time before some trade activity shifted to the finer microns for value. Demand for the finer microns for more formal suiting has been reduced quite dramatically this season. So, perhaps this is a good sign of some market improvement in this sector.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 18/10/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1545

Change in % +1.85

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2424

Change in %: +0.75

16 Micron

Close: 2206

Change in %: -0.18

17 Micron

Close: 2084

Change in %: +1.17

18 Micron

Close: 2017

Change in %: +0.95

19 Micron

Close: 1953

Change in %: +2.63

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2109

Change in %: +0.91

Forecast

Looking into AWEX EMI data back to 2010 we note a regular spike in the AWEX EMI around early to mid-October. The omissions were 2018 and 2011 both strong market years and prices in those years were coming from high levels in the preceding months. In 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015 ,2016 and 2017 the EMI showed a strengthening trend to a stronger market in the month of October that was maintained through the following period and into the next calendar year. It’s with extraordinary regularity that this occurred. In 2013, the market was flat all year so that was another anomaly. Will the tide change with the recent few weeks stability and the better market tone this week? Fremantle sale finished stronger than the eastern state close.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 17

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 17                        4972                         4577                   7.9%

South                   M 17                      15498                        14627                  5.6%

West                     F 17                        6607                          6057                  8.3%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 18                       W-T                            9577

South                      M 18                      W-T                          21461

West                        F 18                       W-T                           8408

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Most market reports will alert to continued volatility this week but we are of the opinion that the better prepared clips, particularly those with NM or CM status, remain much more stable. We found only a small movement in our Authentico index’s this week, all moving between 0.3 and 1% up or down. There was a larger superfine selection this week and they were the wools that performed the best. The 15.0 to 17.5 micron range was well supported. The AWEX EMI didn’t fare as well, minus 1.7% for the week, but this would have been influenced by a poor performance in the crossbred sector which eased as the sale progressed.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 11/10/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1517

Change in % -1.69

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2406

Change in %: -0.91

16 Micron

Close: 2210

Change in %: -1.03

17 Micron

Close: 2060

Change in %: +0.34

18 Micron

Close: 1998

Change in %: +0.30

19 Micron

Close: 1903

Change in %: -0.31

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2090

Change in %: -0.19

Forecast

A smaller sale next week with 33,000 bales rostered for sale including a one-day sale (Wednesday) in Sydney. This is unusual for this time of the season and an indication of the general supply trend.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 16

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 16                      10143                         9060                 10.7%

South                   M 16                      17625                        15036                 14.7%

West                     F 16                        7588                          6093                 19.7%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 17                         W                              5425

South                      M 17                      W-T                          19371

West                        F 17                       W-T                           8174

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

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AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Activity was clearly more focused on the Chinese specification types this week. The largest percentage change was on the tender and more average performing wool types. These are usually the first to react in any market change and typically are the most volatile. Our better types for our Italian weaver clients were generally very firm this week. The better style and strength types are not as exposed to the volatility in the current market. This was the same for the Authentico clips. They didn’t move much, in fact even slightly easier in the 17.5 / 19.0 range as the general market activity was dominated by those seeking wool at a price. It was a very welcome sign though. This activity resulted in one of the more stable overall market trends in recent weeks if not months.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 4/10/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1543

Change in % +2.12

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2428

Change in %: +0.37

16 Micron

Close: 2233

Change in %: +1.59

17 Micron

Close: 2053

Change in %: -1.39

18 Micron

Close: 1992

Change in %: -0.69

19 Micron

Close: 1909

Change in %: -1.34

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2094

Change in %: -0.33

Forecast

We have another designated superfine sale in Sydney next week. These sales are becoming less dominated by superfine clips as growers look to sell into a positive market tone as a preference over when they have traditionally offered their wool. Even considering this, we do expect a few more superfine clips. The New England region is suffering from an extended and brutal drought. This is forcing further reductions in sheep numbers added to reduced cut per head, lower lambing percentages and increasing feed costs. The real cost of this on the level of production is still a long way from being realised. These woolgrowers must be commended for their resolve and commitment to wool growing and the welfare of their sheep in such difficult times.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 15

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 15                       6753                          6352                  5.9%

South                   M 15                      15151                         14238                 6.0%

West                     F 15                        6245                          5425                 13.1%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 16                        W-T                           11113

South                      M 16                       W-T                          21108

West                        F 16                        W-T                           7835

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

The soft lead from Fremantle last Thursday ensured the opening of this week’s market was negative. The variation in price from week to week and day to day is compounding the confusion and subsequent difficulty in managing all buying and selling decisions. The level of price is not necessarily under question, it’s the variation and the uncertainty that this movement is creating. This is impacting on the general trading environment from farm through the entire supply chain. It’s a global market and with prices easing in South Africa to levels well below our close on Wednesday, this flowed through to the Australian market on Thursday.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 27/09/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1511

Change in % -6.09

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2419

Change in %: -3.74

16 Micron

Close: 2198

Change in %: -5.98

17 Micron

Close: 2082

Change in %: -4.94

18 Micron

Close: 2006

Change in %: -3.04

19 Micron

Close: 1935

Change in %: -3.44

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2101

Change in %: -4.28

Forecast

Some would be critical of the spike in the volume of wool offered nationally this week even if it was just 37,000 bales offered across all three centres. Not large by any measure but still 37% or 10,000 more bales than last week. AWEX auction data to week 14 indicates there has been 27.5% fewer bales of first hand grower wool offered this season compared to last year. AWTA test data to end September indicated a fall in tested volume of 14% compared to end September 2018 and yet the Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee met in August and predicted a fall of just 5% for the full year. Some widely variable figures.

We would have preferred a smaller sale this week once we understood the market was to open lower but brokers lot the wool for sale and provide volumes in the middle of the week prior, when the market was positive. Also, we can’t decline the grower the opportunity to offer their wool for sale and the auction system is at least very transparent in terms of what is available. Some growers are in the middle of the worst drought on record, are desperate for cash and prices are still considered acceptable if only the wild fluctuations would settle. We must understand growers have the right to choose when to sell their wool, like buyers have the right to choose if they buy. It’s just a very unfortunate and difficult period we need to work through compounded by global economic uncertainty.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 14

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 14                       9512                          6992                 26.5%

South                   M 14                      16737                        11010                 34.2%

West                     F 14                        7299                          4321                 40.8%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 15                        W-T                            8341

South                      M 15                       W-T                           18085

West                        F 15                        W-T                            7748

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.