AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Very welcome rain is currently falling over much of Eastern Australia including both drought and fire affected regions. They are recording good steady rain falls that is expected to last for a few days. This is extremely good news for our country friends and fire fighters alike and we wish them all well.

Added to this good news, the wool market was poised to open strongly in 2020 with expectations of a 2 to 3% improvement for Tuesday’s opening sale day. Chinese interest had improved slowly over the recess following improved trade news. In the end prices were around 4% dearer followed by a more steadying tone on Wednesday. The finer micron types, 17.0 and finer, were clearly in favor and continued to advance over both days. There were a small offering of 13.5/14.5 micron shorter length types that exceed most expectations with very strong support from both Europe and Chinese interests.

There was a concerning drop in prices late Wednesday in Fremantle with a higher passed in rate as prices lost at least half of the previous day’s gains. This led to a cautious open to Thursday in Melbourne (no sale in Sydney) but confidence improved as the sale continued. Prices finished higher than those in the last session from Fremantle on Wednesday. In the end the market closed the week around about the original expectation of about 3% dearer for 18.0 and broader while the finer microns were 4 to 6% dearer (finest most affected).

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 20/12/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1609

Change in % +3.27

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2613

Change in %: +6.04

16 Micron

Close: 2445

Change in %: +4.48

17 Micron

Close: 2225

Change in %: +4.80

18 Micron

Close: 2098

Change in %: +3.10

19 Micron

Close: 1984

Change in %: +2.37

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2245

Change in %: +4.13

Forecast

The variability seen in the first week was not ideal but we were encouraged by the level of confidence and a more mature market on Thursday. We have a very large offering next week that perhaps spooked the buying trade on Wednesday. We remain confident that the Chinese sector needs greasy wool in the short term. The ability of the exporters to finance the clip with prompt cash payment terms was also floated as a reason for reduce activity. It was not necessarily that buyers were less willing to buy.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 29

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 29                     11,086                     10,673                  3.7%

South                     M 29                    27,393                      25,087                 8.4%

West                       F 29                      13,782                      11,029                 20.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 30                     W/T                           15,985

South                     M 30                   T/W/T                        30,297

West                       F 30                     W/T                            13,608

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Very welcome rain is currently falling over much of Eastern Australia including both drought and fire affected regions. They are recording good steady rain falls that is expected to last for a few days. This is extremely good news for our country friends and fire fighters alike and we wish them all well.

Added to this good news, the wool market was poised to open strongly in 2020 with expectations of a 2 to 3% improvement for Tuesday’s opening sale day. Chinese interest had improved slowly over the recess following improved trade news. In the end prices were around 4% dearer followed by a more steadying tone on Wednesday. The finer micron types, 17.0 and finer, were clearly in favor and continued to advance over both days. There were a small offering of 13.5/14.5 micron shorter length types that exceed most expectations with very strong support from both Europe and Chinese interests.

There was a concerning drop in prices late Wednesday in Fremantle with a higher passed in rate as prices lost at least half of the previous day’s gains. This led to a cautious open to Thursday in Melbourne (no sale in Sydney) but confidence improved as the sale continued. Prices finished higher than those in the last session from Fremantle on Wednesday. In the end the market closed the week around about the original expectation of about 3% dearer for 18.0 and broader while the finer microns were 4 to 6% dearer (finest most affected).

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 20/12/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1609

Change in % +3.27

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2613

Change in %: +6.04

16 Micron

Close: 2445

Change in %: +4.48

17 Micron

Close: 2225

Change in %: +4.80

18 Micron

Close: 2098

Change in %: +3.10

19 Micron

Close: 1984

Change in %: +2.37

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2245

Change in %: +4.13

Forecast

The variability seen in the first week was not ideal but we were encouraged by the level of confidence and a more mature market on Thursday. We have a very large offering next week that perhaps spooked the buying trade on Wednesday. We remain confident that the Chinese sector needs greasy wool in the short term. The ability of the exporters to finance the clip with prompt cash payment terms was also floated as a reason for reduce activity. It was not necessarily that buyers were less willing to buy.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 29

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 29                     11,086                     10,673                  3.7%

South                     M 29                    27,393                      25,087                 8.4%

West                       F 29                      13,782                      11,029                 20.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 30                     W/T                           15,985

South                     M 30                   T/W/T                        30,297

West                       F 30                     W/T                            13,608

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Prices were generally well maintained this week in one of the more stable markets in recent months. Buying pressure from those representing Chinese traders and Topmakers was more noticeable and this was despite the concern of the large national offering. Growers did remove some wool from sale prior to auction which reduced the final numbers available but still another M$62 worth of wool was sold to the trade. All fleece types and descriptions in general closed a little dearer compared to last week except that with less interest on the mulesing status from China, the Authentico index’s weren’t as affected.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 06/12/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1503

Change in % +0.74

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2473

Change in %: -0.24

16 Micron

Close: 2249

Change in %: +0.13

17 Micron

Close: 2051

Change in %: -1.68

18 Micron

Close: 1941

Change in %: -1.47

19 Micron

Close: 1861

Change in %: -2.26

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2081

Change in %: -1.09

Forecast

There does appear more demand as we move closer to the New Year. Perhaps some are expecting a stronger market in January which is often the case. It will probably depend a little on how we finish next week with another 39,000 bales available.

It’s difficult to get a line on what volume of grower held bales are now lying in store waiting for a better market. No doubt growers are more focused on selling into a good market and this has certainly helped to sell this year’s clip in a more orderly fashion. This is expected to continue. For example, despite the positive result for the week, approximately 20% of the original volume available was either withdrawn prior to sale (10%) or passed in below grower reserves (10%).

Next we sell on Tuesday and Wednesday nationally.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 24

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 24                     9777                         8999                  8.0%

South                     M 24                    24112                       21502                10.8%

West                       F 24                      8653                        7484                  13.5%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 25                       T-W                         10400

South                      M 25                      T-W                         20468

West                        F 25                       T-W                          8562

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

There was a clear distinction between the sale result of the better types when compared to the more inferior. No doubt as the market remains in an easing trend, that the appetite for inferior wool types is not good. Any wool with good specification was more keenly sort after while those with low strength, low yields or high mid breaks in particular, were irregular and cheaper. We did see a few ultra fine bales, not particularly good in terms of quality, that sold well. That was a good result for these growers in an otherwise fairly lacklustre market.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 29/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1492

Change in % -2.48

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2479

Change in %: +0.16

16 Micron

Close: 2246

Change in %: -2.94

17 Micron

Close: 2086

Change in %: -2.66

18 Micron

Close: 1970

Change in %: -2.72

19 Micron

Close: 1904

Change in %: +0.32

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2104

Change in %: -2.19

Forecast

The market seems almost in a holding pattern awaiting the recess. We have only the two sale weeks remaining and growers in recent weeks have been more inclined to pass wool in if it fails to meet pre-sale expectations.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 23

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 23                     10075                       8691                  13.7%

South                     M 23                     19735                      15776                 20.1%

West                       F 23                       7381                         5338                 27.7%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 24                       W-T                           10792

South                      M 24                    T-W-T                        27734

West                        F 24                       W-T                            9925

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

The market was a little easier over both selling days but 33,000 bales to the value of $54,000,000 sold to the trade in the week. Not a bad result in a generally negative market tone. We remain convinced that there is demand for wool, albeit a little cautious. Our fine wool Authentico index values also report a more positive market for NM/CM wool in what was a slightly better selection. There is no doubt that the better superfine clips that are either NM or CM are attracting a wider range of competition and these wool’s sold well and tended dearer. The Authentico index values for 15.0, 16.0 and 17.0 all improved a little. 18.0 was unchanged and 19.0 was easier.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 22/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1530

Change in % -1.61

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2475

Change in %: +1.64

16 Micron

Close: 2314

Change in %: +1.71

17 Micron

Close: 2143

Change in %: +0.42

18 Micron

Close: 2025

Change in %: +0.05

19 Micron

Close: 1898

Change in %: -1.71

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2151

Change in %: +0.56

Forecast

Just three weeks remain before the Christmas recess and it appears that the market will continue within this narrower trading range until the end of December.

It’s important to note that the strength in our index values came from the 15.0 and 16.0 range and neither of these micron ranges are included in the EMI.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 22

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 22                     10237                       8938                  12.7%

South                     M 22                     20315                      17631                  13.2%

West                       F 22                       7275                         5895                 19.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 23                       W-T                           10163

South                      M 23                      W-T                           23158

West                        F 23                       W-T                            7953

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

There seems enough interest to source greasy wool coming from the Chinese sector but the current market volatility is resulting in extreme caution on price being shown by the customers. This in turn is affecting profitability and limiting traders willingness to take risk. Whenever the market shows an inclination for strengthening, it brings more optimistic buying activity. The moment it softens, the sales stop. But because the market is reacting in weekly patterns like this, up and down with regularity, we are of the opinion that wool is needed in the short term. The risk of being caught on the wrong side for price as a result of the volatility is the problem.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 15/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1555

Change in % -1.21

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2435

Change in %: -4.21

16 Micron

Close: 2275

Change in %: -2.49

17 Micron

Close: 2134

Change in %: -2.15

18 Micron

Close: 2024

Change in %: -1.94

19 Micron

Close: 1931

Change in %: -1.73

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2139

Change in %: -2.37

Forecast

The market tone on Thursday was completely different to that early Wednesday. With the market finishing strongly on Wednesday, this flowed through to Thursday and we were of the opinion that the market was better than it was reported on Thursday. Quite clearly, sitting in the sale room, it was a different and much more positive environment.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 21

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 21                      9666                        8444                  12.6%

South                     M 21                     17535                      15290                  12.8%

West                       F 21                       8518                         6488                 23.8%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 22                       W-T                           10597

South                      M 22                      W-T                           21380

West                        F 22                       W-T                            7303

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Market volatility continued this week with a reversal of last week’s easing trend. Prices got off to a stronger start and stabilised on Thursday after overacting just a little late on Wednesday. All in all, it was a more promising market tone this week, particularly for the finer microns. It was the better lots 15.5 / 17.0 micron that attracted the most attention with the Chinese focus supported strongly from European interests. Our Authentico indicators performed in line with the general market for 15.0 / 17.0 micron but typically, our index values are more stable than the general market for 18.0 and 19.0 micron.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 8/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1574

Change in % +1.22

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2542

Change in %: +1.72

16 Micron

Close: 2333

Change in %: +2.32

17 Micron

Close: 2181

Change in %: +2.59

18 Micron

Close: 2064

Change in %: +0.98

19 Micron

Close: 1965

Change in %: +0.98

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2191

Change in %: +1.81

Forecast

There was more interest from the Chinese sector this week, as mentioned in our weekly comment, this was more focused on the finer merinos. We’ve said for a while now that they have appeared better value. Now that selection is slowing for the better fine wool, if interest from China is maintained, we remain positive for this market. Production is particularly affected in this range, specifically when considering quality types.

Our thoughts are with our wool grower friends now battling bush fires after lengthy period of drought and costly supplementary feed bills. Their resilience in these times is extraordinary and our support and best wishes for a satisfactory outcome.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 20

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 20                      9781                        9139                   6.6%

South                     M 20                     19985                      18741                  6.2%

West                       F 20                       6344                         5704                 10.1%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 21                       W-T                           10015

South                      M 21                      W-T                           21779

West                        F 21                       W-T                            8932

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

The market on average got off to a softer tone on Wednesday despite the generally good result for all better specification wools which closed generally firm. Wool of 16.0 micron and finer continue to be in demand. Not surprising, those clips certified non mulesed continue to sell with more consistent demand and are not exposed to the general volatility experienced by the overall market through this period. Our Authentico index fell just 0.5% for the week with the 19.0 range the most affected.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 1/11/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1555

Change in % -2.45

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2499

Change in %: -1.07

16 Micron

Close: 2280

Change in %: -0.04

17 Micron

Close: 2126

Change in %: -0.56

18 Micron

Close: 2044

Change in %: -0.24

19 Micron

Close: 1946

Change in %: -1.81

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2152

Change in %: -0.51

Forecast

Some general rain fell across eastern Australia. Some regions received more than others. For many it wasn’t drought breaking but our rural friends and colleagues all remain positive that a shift in the ongoing dry trend is changing. We are seeing some good consistent volumes on offer at the moment but just the six sale weeks remain up to Christmas. Volatility is likely to continue. We expect that some still need to buy wool soon and with the Fremantle auction finishing positively on Thursday, we hope that this will be good lead into next week.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 19

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 19                      9332                        8284                  11.2%

South                     M 19                     16788                       13918                 17.1%

West                       F 19                       7964                         5910                 25.8%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 20                       W-T                           10399

South                      M 20                      W-T                           20753

West                        F 20                       W-T                            7345

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

Following from last week’s positive lead, prices strengthened across the board on Wednesday and followed with a more stabilising market on Thursday. There was no doubt that the confidence shown in the auction room on Wednesday was much greater than we’ve seen in recent months and this was a welcome sign. As the AUD strengthened against the USD overnight Wednesday, there was a little more caution shown on Thursday but prices settled to be around about the same level on average. The better type and specification types were a little dearer and the average strength Chinese qualities a little irregular and cheaper. Fremantle opened cheaper than the east on Thursday but it was noted that the market improved towards the close of sale in that centre. Crossbred and carding types were event more keenly sought after than the merino combing types.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 25/10/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1594

Change in % +3.17

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2526

Change in %: +4.21

16 Micron

Close: 2281

Change in %: +3.40

17 Micron

Close: 2138

Change in %: +2.59

18 Micron

Close: 2049

Change in %: +1.59

19 Micron

Close: 1982

Change in %: +1.48

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2163

Change in %: +2.46

Forecast

If the current market trend continues, in the next few weeks we’ll slowly but surely shift some of the grower held wool onto the market. The availability of wool over the next four weeks is currently forecast to be greater than the same period last year. It has been an orderly approach to marketing this year despite the extreme volatility in price. On the occasion of dramatic falls, we’ve seen up to 50% of the fleece wool offered for sale being passed in. Likewise, when we have expected a better market, we haven’t seen a huge volume of held bales flood the auction. We are constantly encouraged by the greater communication between buyers and sellers these days and a maturing supply chain as a result. Let’s hope that this sensible approach continues towards Christmas. A less volatile market over a sustained period will add some much-needed confidence.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 18

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 18                      8946                        8561                  4.3%

South                     M 18                     17958                       17139                 4.6%

West                       F 18                       8396                        7308                 13.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 19                       W-T                            9515

South                      M 19                      W-T                          18386

West                        F 19                       W-T                           8596

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

Comment

There was welcome interest from the local traders with small but more consistent interest coming from China. We’re pleased that the band that the market is reacting within is now much smaller compared to last month. The better types and the most inferior types were the least affected as the typical Chinese qualities were in favour this week. Again, of interest to our group was the focus on 16.5 micron and finer. This is a micron range that is typically sought after by Italian weavers. For some time now they have appeared good value and as the Chinese focus remains on 18.5 and broader, it was only a matter of time before some trade activity shifted to the finer microns for value. Demand for the finer microns for more formal suiting has been reduced quite dramatically this season. So, perhaps this is a good sign of some market improvement in this sector.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 18/10/2019

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1545

Change in % +1.85

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Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2424

Change in %: +0.75

16 Micron

Close: 2206

Change in %: -0.18

17 Micron

Close: 2084

Change in %: +1.17

18 Micron

Close: 2017

Change in %: +0.95

19 Micron

Close: 1953

Change in %: +2.63

Authentico Indicator

Close: 2109

Change in %: +0.91

Forecast

Looking into AWEX EMI data back to 2010 we note a regular spike in the AWEX EMI around early to mid-October. The omissions were 2018 and 2011 both strong market years and prices in those years were coming from high levels in the preceding months. In 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015 ,2016 and 2017 the EMI showed a strengthening trend to a stronger market in the month of October that was maintained through the following period and into the next calendar year. It’s with extraordinary regularity that this occurred. In 2013, the market was flat all year so that was another anomaly. Will the tide change with the recent few weeks stability and the better market tone this week? Fremantle sale finished stronger than the eastern state close.

Auction offering – current week

Selling Centres for week 17

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                    S 17                        4972                         4577                   7.9%

South                   M 17                      15498                        14627                  5.6%

West                     F 17                        6607                          6057                  8.3%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 18                       W-T                            9577

South                      M 18                      W-T                          21461

West                        F 18                       W-T                           8408

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.