Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

There has been little change in the overall market this week. Fine merino wool, particularly those lines with good specification, were keenly sought after while at the other end of the spectrum, the broader crossbred wools were less favoured. Also of note was the interest in fine carding types which were also dearer over the week.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 20/11/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1150

Change in % -0.77%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2628

Change in %:  +1.27

16 Micron

Close: 2236

Change in %: +0.95

17 Micron

Close: 1949

Change in %: +0.10

18 Micron

Close: 1720

Change in %: -1.09

19 Micron

Close: 1505

Change in %: unchanged

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1952

Change in %: -0.36

Forecast

We have just three week’s of sales remining until the Christmas recess. It’s been a difficult year but the market is finishing on a strong note.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 22                     10127                        9161                  9.5%

South                     M 22                     19874                      17435                12.3%

West                       F 22                       6534                       5530                 15.4%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 23                        T / W                       10088

South                      M 23                       T / W                       23850

West                        F 23                        T / W                       7884

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

The market traded in a narrow range again this week, highlighted by the positive tone at the close on Wednesday. The market was most definitely more keenly contested in the closing stages of Wednesday’s sale and finished strongly in Fremantle. While it’s difficult to measure for a variety of quality variables, the non mulesed selection is again attracting a wider range of competition and certain NM lots are more difficult to buy, pushed by greater competition. Demand is coming from China as well as Europe with a particular focus around 17.0 to 18.0 micron. This strength is reflected in our Authentico Index Values for these micron groups.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 13/11/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1159

Change in % -2.52%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2595

Change in %:  -2.99

16 Micron

Close: 2215

Change in %: -1.42

17 Micron

Close: 1947

Change in %: -0.92

18 Micron

Close: 1739

Change in %: +1.22

19 Micron

Close: 1505

Change in %: -1.83

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1959

Change in %: -0.81

Forecast

41,000 bales are currently listed for sale next week. M$40 AUD worth of wool was sold to the trade in week 21 so we are seeing a more consistent level of finance coming into the market. According to AWEX reports, first hand offered wool at auction is down just 0.9% compared to the same period last year. This is despite the AWTA figures indicating a much poorer picture with regards to production. AWTA tested bales to end October were down 12% year on year. With the market resurgence since the low period of early September, we remain confident in the medium term.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 21                      9148                        7550                  17.5%

South                     M 21                     18863                      15458                18.1%

West                       F 21                       6904                       5092                 26.2%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 22                        T / W                       10858

South                      M 22                       T / W                       22971

West                        F 22                        T / W                       7698

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Prices have ended around similar levels of last week. After initially opening cautiously, prices improved over the remainder of the sale. The market was in a stronger position at the close of sale Tuesday night than what most reports and indexes would lead us to believe. This flowed into a more positive tone on Wednesday. Again, prices opened on a slightly cautious tone with buyers careful with price considering the wild fluctuations we’ve experienced in recent weeks. However, prices steadied and improved as the sale progressed. All in all a good positive market tone under the circumstances. Hopefully this help to improve market confidence in the coming weeks.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 06/11/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1189

Change in % +0.08%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2675

Change in %:  +0.11

16 Micron

Close: 2247

Change in %: 0

17 Micron

Close: 1965

Change in %: +0.05

18 Micron

Close: 1718

Change in %: +0.94

19 Micron

Close: 1533

Change in %: +0.33

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1975

Change in %: +0.30

Forecast

While still erratic, the market now appears to be trading within a more narrow range. We have only five sale weeks remining this calendar year. Many will be looking forward to 2021 and hopefully better times, but in the end the wool market has rebounded in 2020 better than many would have expected a few months ago. No doubt influenced by reduced global supply.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 20                      9091                        7943                  12.6%

South                     M 20                     19377                      16919                  12.7%

West                       F 20                       9044                       8318                   8.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 21                        T / W                        9161

South                      M 21                       T / W                       23446

West                        F 21                        T / W                        7932

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Market volatility remains the new normal. Greasy wool is being traded on a ‘hand to mouth’ requirement for prompt delivery. In the current environment, customers are less likely to make a decision on their longer-term requirements. The ongoing global situation is limiting the amount of risk or exposure they are prepared to take. They are making decisions to buy at the latest possible moment. This urgency is adding to the volatility. We are relying on the one major destination for wool at the moment so this volatility is likely to continue. This is creating some opportunities for both buyers and sellers but this extreme volatility is making business decisions more complicated.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 30/10/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1188

Change in % +4.39%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2672

Change in %:  +3.89

16 Micron

Close: 2247

Change in %: +2.46

17 Micron

Close: 1964

Change in %: +4.19

18 Micron

Close: 1702

Change in %: +2.41

19 Micron

Close: 1528

Change in %: +4.23

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1969

Change in %: +3.25

Forecast

AWTA test data figures for the period to end October were released this week. 11.4% less weight was tested when compared with July to October 2019. More noticeably a reduction of 32.5% in net weight of wool 16.5 micron and finer has been tested. That is a trend quite obvious to us on the show floor. Overall, 19.5 micron and finer is down 19.2% when compared to the same period last season. (source AWTA).

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 19                      8520                        8183                   4.0%

South                     M 19                     16674                      15035                   9.8%

West                       F 19                      6918                         6050                  12.5%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 20                        T / W                        9016

South                      M 20                       T / W                       22293

West                        F 20                        T / W                       10660

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Following the softer tone at the end of sale last week, the market opened cautiously. It was however noted that buyer competition remained very active at the lower basis. It was obvious that they wanted to buy but were clearly cautious about the price paid. The tone of the auction room was different to that experienced a few months ago. Prices did stabilise on Wednesday and finished with Fremantle on a positive note compared to their previous close.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 23/10/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1138

Change in % -6.64%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2572

Change in %:  -2.39

16 Micron

Close: 2193

Change in %: -1.75

17 Micron

Close: 1885

Change in %: -4.75

18 Micron

Close: 1662

Change in %: -4.48

19 Micron

Close: 1466

Change in %: -4.56

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1907

Change in %: -3.64

Forecast

The quality of the Australian wool clip has improved significantly over the past 10 to 20 years. Australian sheep breeders and wool producers are extensively using ASBVs (Australian Sheep Breeding Values) to analyse the animals. ASBV’s are an estimate of an animal’s true breeding value based on pedigree and performance recorded information. They are essentially a projection of how that animal’s progeny will perform for a range of traits. As a result, Australian wool production has improved dramatically with producers committed to animal health with a focus on nutrition. This in turn has improved the productivity of the merino flock in Australia. There appears more nutrition in the wool, more staple length and a brighter and cleaner clip. All as a result of a strong animal welfare focus.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 18                     11488                         8159                 29.0%

South                     M 18                     16313                        11932                 26.9%

West                       F 18                       8122                         6306                  22.4%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 19                        W / T                        8972

South                      M 19                       W / T                       20013

West                        F 19                        W / T                        7681

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

Volatility continues. Tuesday this week saw the second greatest one day increase for the EMI according to AWEX reports, the largest being in September 2019. This followed with an easing in prices on Wednesday. The demand is for prompt delivery of greasy wool to China, clearly in short supply, and this is fuelling the volatility. We see this around this time of the year regularly. The uncertainty regarding the global situation is only making the situation more complicated. We are however, pleased to see the fortunes of the market improve. Good wool prices and strong livestock values will surely help to build the future of the merino industry in Australia. The finer merino types continue to be keenly sought after and the crossbred types at the other end of the scale were also in demand this week, closing at the highest point.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 16/10/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1219

Change in % +9.13%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2635

Change in %:  +2.73

16 Micron

Close: 2232

Change in %: +4.49

17 Micron

Close: 1979

Change in %: +6.11

18 Micron

Close: 1740

Change in %: +4.13

19 Micron

Close: 1536

Change in %: +6.37

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1979

Change in %: +4.76

Forecast

We’ve been keenly observing the strong ram sale results in the past month. Stud breeders from across Australia have all seen greater clearance numbers and increased average prices for their stud sheep. This is a show of strength for the merino industry in Australia. It would appear that wool producers are trying to rebuild numbers in a much better season. The focus on ram selection is on quality wool and increased fertility. Surplus sheep and breeding stock in particular are extremely valuable and if current wool prices are sustainable, which we hope they are, this will help to stabilise supply for the next couple of years.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 17                      8122                         7929                  2.4%

South                     M 17                     15674                       14903                 4.9%

West                       F 17                       9278                         8261                 11.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 18                        T / W                        12122

South                      M 18                       T / W                       20994

West                        F 18                        T / W                       10888

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

It has been an extraordinary turn around for the wool market in the last two weeks. Driven by Chinese demand, all types and descriptions were significantly dearer. With greasy wool supplies low and some fresh demand for prompt delivery, exporters were able to sell good volume leading into the sale and this was followed up again on Tuesday after the first sale day. The main interest is driven by the Chinese domestic market and focused on 17.5 and 18.5 micron short wool tops for the woollen and semi worsted business. Global demand remains limited.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 09/10/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1117

Change in % +9.3%

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2565

Change in %:  +8.14

16 Micron

Close: 2136

Change in %: +8.26

17 Micron

Close: 1865

Change in %: +7.49

18 Micron

Close: 1671

Change in %: +9.07

19 Micron

Close: 1444

Change in %: +8.49

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1889

Change in %: +8.25

Forecast

The price premium for fine and superfine over the medium micron merino is very healthy. The superfine sector has often felt the most impact during any market downturn but this has been very different. From 19.0 micron up to 15.5 micron we are seeing a premium of at least 20c per kg for every 0.1 of a micron.

The market is often variable and fluctuating through this period. This might be felt more due to the absence of any great competition for the Chinese but some exporters believe that the market strength is expected to remain through until December. It might depend on the Chinese National Singles Day, the national online shopping event on November 11. If this is successful, demand could continue through to December.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 16                      8101                         7967                  1.7%

South                     M 16                     14351                      14049                 2.1%

West                       F 16                       5228                         5007                 4.2%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 17                        T / W                         7660

South                      M 17                       T / W                       17832

West                        F 17                        T / W                         8601

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

We’ve now been selling around 30,000 bales per week for a few weeks with lower passed in rates. A few months ago, the market could only manage 20,000 per week. This is a much stronger market performance. Some would have expected a softening tone this week but prices were dearer from the outset. The difference this week is that all types and descriptions were dearer. 20.0 micron and broader settled a little towards the close on Wednesday but finer merino’s, crossbreds and cardings all maintained the levels to the close.

The performance of the superfine sector, particularly 17.5 micron and finer, has been a stand out. Noting that we are currently in the peak period for annual supply and beyond November availability is expected to drop. The exception being a couple of opportunities in February 2021.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 02/10/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1022

Change in % +2.61

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2372

Change in %:  +2.42

16 Micron

Close: 1973

Change in %: +0.92

17 Micron

Close: 1735

Change in %: +0.52

18 Micron

Close: 1532

Change in %: +2.06

19 Micron

Close: 1331

Change in %: +2.31

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1745

Change in %: +1.39

Forecast

Grower held stocks remain at reasonably high levels but clearly growers are prepared to hold wool for better market conditions. Seasonal factors are favourable. Livestock prices, while settling are still high, and crop yields will be very good. Both livestock and crops generally need to be sold when ready. This provides cash flow to woolgrowers and allows them to be hold wool in store. A large percentage of the wool held in store is drought affected with low vegetable matter (VM). This could well be an advantage as the VM of the clip is expected to increase into our summer and through to autumn 2021.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 15                      7365                         7079                  3.9%

South                     M 15                     15508                      14583                 6.0%

West                       F 15                       5473                         5200                 5.0%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 16                        T / W                         7971

South                      M 16                       T / W                       16828

West                        F 16                          W                             5669

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

The focus shifted to the finer micron types this week and in particular the shorter knitting types. Tender fleece, prems and good pieces 17.5 micron and finer all performed particularly well, dominated by Chinese interests. The market was expected to settle a little this week with reports of not a lot of interest around the closing levels from last week. However the market performed better than most would have predicted, particularly the finer types.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 25/09/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 996

Change in % -3.86

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2316

Change in %:  -0.17

16 Micron

Close: 1955

Change in %: -1.11

17 Micron

Close: 1726

Change in %: -0.75

18 Micron

Close: 1501

Change in %: -2.85

19 Micron

Close: 1301

Change in %: -3.63

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1721

Change in %: -1.54

Forecast

We look forward to having many of you join the Wool Connect conference next week. https://woolconnect.gschneider.com/ For those interested but not already registered, please follow this link.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 14                      7903                         6914                  12.5%

South                     M 14                     16074                       12955                 19.4%

West                       F 14                       5325                         4039                 24.2%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 15                        T / W                         8584

South                      M 15                       T / W                        19306

West                        F 15                        T / W                        6560

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.

Australian Weekly Market ReportThe Schneider Group

AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY MARKET REPORT

/in /by

Comment

The last two weeks have seen a significant change in market sentiment. As we said a few weeks ago, the price then was not a true reflection on the value of wool. It was more a reflection of the circumstances that the global economy is in. Wool production in Australia remains at a 100-year low and prices have been at least 40% lower than the same time last year. Simple supply and demand economics will eventually result in a more positive market outcome. We presume that has been the reason for the quick turnaround. The industry is now smaller than ever and market reactions are expected to be quicker and more volatile. Most had stood and watched while outlook remained uncertain. That has been understandable. Eventually however, the low prices and a fear of missing out has resulted in a rush on business for prompt shipment with the Chinese market dominating.

AWEX Eastern Indicator compared with 18/09/2020

Eastern Indicator

Close: 1036

Change in % +10.57

If you want to learn more about AWEX indicators, visit the official website http://www.awex.com.au

Authentico Index Values

15 Micron

Close: 2320

Change in %:  +6.13

16 Micron

Close: 1977

Change in %: +6.92

17 Micron

Close: 1739

Change in %: +6.23

18 Micron

Close: 1545

Change in %: +6.63

19 Micron

Close: 1350

Change in %: +9.85

Authentico Indicator

Close: 1748

Change in %: +6.78

Forecast

Not a lot has changed with regards to the global retail and consumer confidence situation. We expect some volatility in the short term will continue. It’s not uncommon at this time of the season. However, growers have shown a strong resistance to sell at the low levels and despite the improved market, not all will be prepared to sell yet. This will limit the volume available and the recent low levels are now unlikely to return.

Auction offering – current week

Market          Sale          Offered             Sold       Passed In

North                      S 13                      6720                         6554                  2.5%

South                     M 13                     11384                       11183                   1.8%

West                       F 13                       5156                         4904                   4.9%

Auction offering – next week

Market          Sale          Sale days          Volume

North                      S 14                        T / W                         8002

South                      M 14                       T / W                         19149

West                        F 14                        T / W                         6088

 

If you want to see the complete Wool Sales Roster click here.