As reported, the market took a significant βhitβ on Wednesday. While we still believe that the current and future levels of supply will ensure a more positive market in the future, there are simply too many uncertainties in the short term. A large part of this uncertainty could be attributed to the poor US economy. Chinese textile exports have slowed along with reduced consumer confidence in the US. This is affecting the purchasing confidence of many spinners and weavers in China. We must remember that for the previous 12 months the greasy market rallied with speculation of poor supply during this period. Prices were therefore at historically strong levels while textile exports from China continued to grow. Once prices started the downward trend, it has been very difficult convincing our customers to buy considering prices were coming from these levels.
AWEX INDICATOR compared with 01/05/2008
Indicator
Close
Change %
EASTERN
884
-2.21
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SCHNEIDER INDICATORS compared with 01/05/2008
Indicator
Close
Change %
SWMI 15 (*)
SWMI 16
1729.1
+0.12
SWMI 17
1514.3
-0.76
SWMI 18
1328.4
+0.29
SWMI 19
1075.3
-2.37
(*) Marketed from September to March
Each indicator is expressed by a number representing a market quotation for a selected range of types and is not a price expression and it's not influenced by currency fluctuations. Wool indicators are anyway based on Australian Dollar.
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Schneider Indicators charts based on the last 30 days.
Forecast
The Australian Superfine Wool Growers Association (ASWGA) has recently reported on the production levels of superfine wool from July β07 to March β08. This data is extracted from the AWTA tested volumes. For the first time in many seasons the production of superfine wool has declined. The total production of fine micron wool <19.5 micron has fallen by 5.9% and <18.5 micron by 10.7% compared to the previous year. More specifically, production of 16.6/17.5 micron is down 13.3% and volume of 17.6/18.5 micron is 11.1% less than the same period the previous season. It is important to note that these volumes refer only to micron with no reference to quality. Considering the continued trend away from wool sheep production in Australia and more favorable seasonal conditions, we should see this trend continue for another 12 months. The current market is certainly not helping wool grower confidence.
SELLING CENTRES FOR THE NEXT WEEK 46
Market
Sale
Selling
Offering
NORTH
S46
W/T
14594
SOUTH
M46
W/T
23147
WEST
F46
W/T
13065
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